what should you do when something you believe turns out to be wrong?
That's Non a Hypothesis
Production growth is science. Without the scientific method, we'd only be "growth hacking" — trying random things from loud blogs without learning nigh our users.
The cornerstone of the scientific method is forming a hypothesis. That's a squeamish sentence that leads everyone to nod their head, even so a stunningly high percentage of brilliant product people don't write real hypotheses. Instead, they write predictions, or solutions, or don't carp with hypotheses at all.
A skillful hypothesis is a argument well-nigh what y'all believe to be truthful today. It is not what yous recall will happen when y'all effort Ten. Information technology contains neither the words "If" nor "Then." In fact, it has nothing to practice with what yous're most to attempt — it'due south all nigh your users.
Why be pedantic virtually this? Because hypotheses are the key to learning. Product growth doesn't happen from a few cool tricks. Product growth comes from fumbling effectually in the night, trying a lot of things, and improving our aim over the grade of months and years. In other words, this is a long game that is ultimately about learning. Clear learnings come up but from clear hypotheses.
Let's Talk Virtually Scientific discipline
Science is about building a model in your mind most whatever information technology is you're fanatically curious about.
That's a jail cell, an electron, a species — these are things yous can't look at all the fourth dimension from all directions— y'all have to make a model.
In product or growth, that's your users. How do they recollect? What do they intendance nearly? How do they behave? What don't they know?
Over time, this model gets ameliorate and amend as we stumble around, try experiments, and notice more and more. We clean out wrong assumptions, and add texture to facts that appear truthful.
Thus, a Hypothesis Is…
A hypothesis is ane aspect of that model in your head. It is a something you believe to be true. Maybe you believe information technology so much that you phone call it a fact, because it'southward staring you in the face. Maybe it'south something you believe is such a logical extension of what you lot know for sure, that it must be true.
The point is, it's non about your experiment or what you call back is going to happen. It's nigh what you believe is true about the thing itself:
- Nosotros believe that plants need sunlight to live
- We believe that electrons have a negative charge
- We believe that white blood cells defend the torso against affliction
- Nosotros believe that patreon creators are highly motivated to use our platform, but feel writers' block when building their pages
Even if they're painfully obvious and true and accept a ton of evidence behind them — they're still hypotheses. They're still things we believe.
Hypotheses should exist falsifiable — that means there's something out there you tin can practically detect that would atomic number 82 you to reconsider the hypothesis. Saying that the World was created vi,000 years ago, but made to look much older, is not falsifiable.
Where Do Hypotheses Come up From?
Hypotheses have reasons backside them. In growth, that could be past experiments. It could exist user research. It could exist a conversation we had with sales. It could be a particular metric.
Or you could know And then little nigh something, that it'south a wild-ass guess of a starting bespeak. That's absurd too, as long equally yous are conscious about information technology. Every bit Richard Feynman, Nobel Prize-winning physicist explains it:
It is not unscientific to take a guess, although many people who are not in scientific discipline believe that it is.
Skilful hypotheses cite sources: Why do you believe this to exist true?
- We believe that plants need sunlight to live because plants do not seem to grow in places where there is no calorie-free
- We believe that electrons have a negative charge considering when they shot through a magnetic field they curved to the right instead of going straight.
- We believe that white blood cells defend the body against affliction because ill patients appear to have a higher count in their torso compared to healthy patients.
- We believe that Patreon creators are highly motivated to use our platform, just experience writers' block when edifice their pages because when the customer success team helps a creator launch, almost of the fourth dimension is spent helping them find relevant examples.
A Prediction Is…
Now that we have a conspicuously articulated hypothesis in hand, a prediction is what you lot believe will happen if your hypothesis is true.
This is what many smart people mistake to be a hypothesis.
- If I put my plant in the dark, then it will dice
- If I receive an infection, and so my white blood cell count will go up
- If we put concrete examples in the Patreon onboarding, then we volition run into a ascent in successful creators
There tin exist many predictions from one hypothesis. One conventionalities can lead you to attempt many things.
Clear Hypotheses Atomic number 82 to Clear Learning
If all you have is "If I put my plant in the nighttime it volition die" (a prediction) and that turns out to exist imitation, and then all you lot learned is… that sentence was wrong.
However, if you started with "Plants need sunlight to alive" and your item plant survived in the dark (!!!), you lot now know that statement is not exactly true. Perchance there's exceptions or nuances. Perhaps there's a new experiment to endeavor. Perhaps it's time to articulate a new, more subtle hypothesis, or a crazy new one.
If information technology turns out your prediction was wrong, information technology calls your hypothesis into question. Possibly information technology turns out to be completely simulated (happens to me a lot). Perchance only parts of it are incorrect, and you merely demand to add more subtlety to information technology (also happens a lot).
These also happen to exist the most exciting moments in science. (Surprises are good, they lead to Nobel Prizes).
Your mental model should get better and more refined over fourth dimension. When things get really disruptive, you lot might need to completely overhaul it.
In other words, without a hypothesis, we didn't learn annihilation.
Side note: What Nigh Problem Statements?
As growth and product people, we're paid to solve problems. They're usually simple to articulate: "Users are not doing [thing we want them to do]."
- "We'd similar customers to retain longer."
- "We'd similar users to engage more."
- "We'd like visitors to catechumen at college rates."
Bug are our area of focus, our initiative, our objectives. To solve them, nosotros outset by figuring out why something we desire to happen is, well, non happening. Hypotheses explain why the problem is happening.
When nosotros structure our thoughts like this, wonderful things happen. We focus on simple solutions outset. We proceed telescopic small. Nosotros know exactly why we are doing what we're doing. Ideas are straightforward and elementary. Scientific process is a beautiful thing.
Your Checklist for Writing a Good Hypothesis
I'll go out you lot with a quick rule of thumb for ensuring you're articulating good a hypothesis:
- Information technology starts with the words "nosotros believe"
- Information technology probably has the discussion "considering"
- It doesn't incorporate "if" or "then" (that's a prediction)
That'southward it. Now allow's go learn!
Source: https://medium.com/@talraviv/thats-not-a-hypothesis-25666b01d5b4
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